Lightning vs. Sabres Prediction & Picks - Nov. 11

The Tampa Bay Lightning (11-4-2) host the Buffalo Sabres (8-6-3) at KeyBank Center on Wednesday, Nov. 11 at 7 p.m. ET on TNT, with each team back in action after a loss. The Lightning fell to the Winnipeg Jets 4-3 in their most recent outing, while the Sabres are coming off a 4-1 loss to the Vegas Golden Knights.

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Before watching this matchup, here's a look at which squad we pick to bring home the victory in Wednesday's action on the ice.

The Sabres have gone 5-3-2 in their past 10 contests, totaling 31 goals while giving up 31 in that time. On 29 power-play opportunities during that span, they have scored five goals (17.2%).

Lightning vs. Sabres Predictions for Wednesday

Our computer projections model for this contest calls for a final tally of Lightning 4, Sabres 3.

• Moneyline Pick: Lightning (-126)
• Total Pick: No Pick - Predicted Margin Negligible
• Spread Pick: Sabres (+1.5)

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Lightning Splits and Trends

• The Lightning have gone 2-2-4 in overtime contests as part of an overall record of 11-4-2.
• Tampa Bay has seven points (3-1-1) in the five games it has played that were decided by one goal.
• In the two games this season the Lightning registered just one goal, they lost both times.
• The Lightning have scored more than two goals 15 times, and are 11-2-2 in those games (to register 24 points).
• In the nine games when Tampa Bay has capitalized on a single power-play goal, it has a 7-1-1 record (15 points).
• When it has outshot opponents, Tampa Bay is 9-2-1 (19 points).
• The Lightning have been outshot by opponents in five games, going 2-2-1 to record five points.

Sabres Splits and Trends

• The Sabres have a record of 8-6-3 this season and are 2-3-5 in overtime games.
• Buffalo has earned 12 points (5-1-2) in its eight games decided by one goal.
• This season the Sabres recorded just one goal in four games and they lost every time.
• Buffalo has won the only game this season when it scored two goals (1-0-0, two points).
• The Sabres have earned 17 points in their 11 games with three or more goals scored.
• In the two games when Buffalo has recorded a single power-play goal, it lost both times.
• When outshooting its opponent this season, Buffalo is 7-4-0 (14 points).
• The Sabres have been outshot by opponents in six games, going 1-2-3 to record five points.

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Team Stats Comparison

Lightning vs. Sabres Game Time and TV Channel

• When: Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 7 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: TNT
• Live Stream: Watch this match on HBO Max (Regional restrictions may apply)
• Where: KeyBank Center in Buffalo, New York

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