Time for my Stone-Cold Locks of the week – strong bounce back last week, 0-2 in college but 4-0 in the NFL. So I finished the week 4-2 and now I’m inching ever closer to .500. 24-26 on the year. 6 picks this week, feeling good, feeling fresh, let’s keep rebounding like Rodman.
throw away the keys – let’s lock ‘em up!
FSU (+10) @ Clemson- Boy if you told me I was going to feel good about FSU going into Death Valley, I would not have believed you. But truth is, I see this game much closer to a pick ‘em than a 10 point spread. Vegas has still not caught up to how bad this Clemson team is. I fell for it last week taking them against Pitt…fool me once shame on me, fool me twice…you can’t! Clemson is 0-7 ATS this year. They rank top 100 in 1 offensive category and that’s passing, where they rank 98th. Meanwhile, Jashaun Corbin for FSU is one of the nation's best runners, FSU will keep this close at the very least. FSU +10. Lock it up.
Iowa State (-7) @ WV- The Cyclones come into this game off the heels of a big win against undefeated Oklahoma State, their offense is humming and super efficient. They have a top 10 pass offense and one of the nation’s most talented backs in Breece Hall. WV on the other hand, ranks 104th in yards allowed per play, and 122nd in open target percentage…a death sentence against a good QB like Brock Purdy. Iowa State -7 on the road. Lock it up!
Bengals (-10) @ Jets- Um, how is this line still @ 10? Sometimes I look at lines and say ‘that’s a trap’. Sometimes I look and say ‘vegas is getting too cute’. This is the latter. The Bengals do just about everything well and the Jets do nothing well. Also, they’ve got their backup Mike White making the start. Mike White was a 5th round pick in 2018 out of Western Kentucky. This won’t be pretty. I’m sure the Jets will have their moments but the Bengals are too explosive on offense and too opportunistic on defense to not run away with this.Bengals -10. Lock it up.
Chargers (-4.5) vs Patriots- I kind of get the feeling that were doing some over-correcting here. The Patriots beat the Jets 54-13 last week, that’s not who they are. The Chargers lost 34-6 to Baltimore before their bye week, that’s not who they are. Let’s throw those games out. Let’s pear this down. Mac Jones, rookie QB on the road, taking on a team that is talented and well coached coming off a bye. The only chance the Patriots have in this game is to score early. If the Chargers jump out to a lead, its over. I’m betting on Herbert/Staley here off the bye. Chargers -4.5. Lock it up!
Saints (+5) vs Bucs- 73% of bets are coming in on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, raise the RED flags! The Bucs haven’t been running away from teams on the road. 3 road games this season: 1 loss, 2 wins by an average margin of 4 points. The Bucs have NEVER been favored by this much in the Saints/Sean Payton era when entering into the Superdome. Now, of course, these teams are different…but let’s not forget, it was just last year when the Saints swept the Bucs in their regular season series. Saints +5 is a bargain, take it. Lock it up.