Time for my Stone-Cold Locks of the week – and yes – last week did NOT go well. But, we’re playing the long game folks…this isn’t about over-reacting to a bad week. Time to knock one back, a little hair of the dog if you will. 3-5 last week. 14-15 on the year, time to climb above .500!
throw away the keys – let’s lock ‘em up!
Stanford (+13) @ Arizona State- The Sun Devils are 4-1 this year and all of their wins have come in games where they’ve won by double digits. But the lone game where they faced stiff competition, they lost, 27-17 to BYU. Meanwhile, Stanford has been busy playing spoiler, ruining Oregon’s season and getting USC’s coach fired altogether. This is ateam with confidence and strong QB play – Tanner McKee has been huge for them. Friday night, weird things happen. Give me Stanford plus the points. Lock it up!
Texas (+3.5) vs OU- Red River Showdown! This one’s pretty simple, OU has been flirting with disaster the last few weeks. Razor thin margins against WV, KSU, and Nebraska. I think Texas is better than all of them, and I think they’ve got the most explosive player on the field in Bijan Robinson, fast track in Dallas. I expect a lot of points in this one. Give me the Longhorns with the hook! Lock em up.
Michigan (-3) @ Nebraska- Consider me a sucker, I’m taking the bait. Seriously? I’m supposed to be impressed with a Nebraska team that’s been downright bad for YEARS because they kept it close for 2 games against ranked opponents and then beat NW 56-7? No thanks. Michigan has elite talent at each level of the defense. This team is playing with a certain level of pinoch that I love. When they went into Wisconsin last week, they did the Jump Around with the stadium…as the road team. Give me Michigan all day. -3. Lock it up.
East Carolina (+11) @ UCF- I’m sorry Knights fans, but I can’t stay away from this one. So here you have an East Carolina team who has won 3 straight, going up against a Knights team that has lost 2 straight. ECU has the 6th best rusher in the nation in Keaton Mitchell, going up against a defense that can’t stop the run and just lost one of their best linebackers to the transfer portal. Oh…but they’re at home. I don’t need to tell you what happens to the Knights homefield advantage when they have 2 losses on the schedule. ECU +11 is the best we have to make here. Lock it up.
Bengals (+3) hosting the Packers- 73% of bets coming in on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. But I love Cincy in this spot. Week + to prepare, Burrow at the top of his game, and this Packers team isn’t quite the same on the road. Just look @ this season – 2 road games. 1 was a blow out loss to the Saints, the other was a 2-point win against the 49ers. This game should be a coin flip at best. So I’ll take the 3-points and the home team with ease. Cincy +3. Lock it up!
Dolphins (+10) @ TB- This one makes me feel gross. But let’s dive into the sewage together. The Bucs are coming off a highly emotional game on SNF in New England. Perfect let down spot no matter who their opponent is, you add to that a banged up secondary, and the fact that the only thing Jacoby Brissett does well – throw the deep ball. The Dolphins actually matchup well with the Bucs. This of course could turn into a Bucs run-away, but I like the Phins to keep it close in a loss. Phins +10. Lock it up.
NYG (+7) @ Dallas- Love this game. Nothing like a Giants/Cowboys game that feels big, being played in Dallas in the 4pm window. Love it. I also love the fact that no one is betting on the Giants. Did people not watch Danny Dimes last week? Heroic in a comeback win vs the Saints. That felt like a game where the G-Men figured something out. And look, I think the Cowboys are legitimate but 7 points is just too much for this rivalry game. I’ll take the Giants, we’ll see if I can cash in on Danny Dimes in 2 straight weeks. Lock it up.
Chargers (-2) vs Browns- My man crush on Herbert knows no bounds! Here’s the deal, the Browns are going to feast on QB’s that can’t handle a pass rush, Herbs isn’t one of them. Cleveland’s offense has been anemic, all Herbs has to do is get the Chargers in the end zone 3x and they will cover with ease.
Raiders (-5.5) vs Bears- Don’t worry about the Khalil Mack revenge game factor, we’ll just breeze right past that. I’m more concerned with the fact that the Bears are way overvalued here after Justin Fields picked up his first pro-win vs Detroit. This line moved from 7 to 5.5 when that happened. Problem is, the Raiders are really good at home and they’re really good at sacking the QB. Yannick Ngakoue and Maxx Crosby have been a problem this year. The Bears will have a hard time getting in the end-zone. Raiders -5.5. Lock it up!
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