With the reported plans of the Big XII to expand and an announcement coming as early as Friday when school presidents are expected to learn of applications for membership and a possible vote, many are trying to figure out what happens to the Big XII and its future media deals. For UCF, a move to the Big XII means more money whatever the new number is.
Last season, UCF made around $5.4M(including media rights, bowls and other league revenue) in its payout from the American. The new media deal for the AAC averages $7M per year, but the deal is back loaded.
Big XII schools received $34.5M for the athletic year of 2020-21. That was down from $37.7M the previous year. The pandemic was the reason for the decline. In the 2018-19 year, Big XII schools got $38.8M. Those figures included existing members Texas and Oklahoma.
Everyone knows those figures are going to drop once the Longhorns and Sooners leave for the SEC. But whatever the figure becomes, it will be a significant increase for UCF.
Once the Big XII announces its expansion plans and makes it all official, the real work of when everyone moves in and out becomes the story. Part of that process also means reconfigured media deals. The current Big XII media deal runs through the end of the 2024-25 year. But that all is likely to change. The SEC will be adjusting its new deal with ESPN because it's adding two new teams. Expansion also opens the door for the Big XII to work with its media partners(ESPN and FOX) on their new deal.
Let's leave all that work to lawyers, bean counters and media executives. But let's try and put some numbers together.
The television contract paid Big XII schools $28M in 2019-20(the year before the pandemic). The additional money comes from bowls, the College Football Playoff, NCAA Basketball Tournament and elsewhere.
Some suggest Big XII schools will see their revenue drop by 50% or more with the loss of Texas and Oklahoma. If we assume media partners see no increased value of the new schools coming into the league then let's start with half of $28M.
But before we start there, let's assume that a new media deal for the new look Big XII has a slight increase because the market sees most deals increase in some form. I also think ESPN, who may have played a role in assisting the SEC with the Texas/Oklahoma move, may want to avoid any legal battle and offer a little more than market value.
Let's say a new media deal for the Big XII, that may still include ESPN and FOX, pays $15-18M per school and the deal is for 10 years.
Most believe the new look Big XII retains its autonomous position with the SEC, ACC, Big Ten and Pac 12. That's important on so many levels. The P5 conferences basically get to make policy and tell the G5 to either accept it or get lost. While there is a movement and plan to redo the NCAA bylaws, most believe the P5 leagues will retain its power.
If that happens, the Big XII keeps another big treasure chest of cash: the college football playoff.
Currently, in the four-team model, all P5 leagues receive $66M in playoff money(that figure does not include additional money if you have a team that makes the playoff) while all five G5 leagues split about $90M total. In a ten team Big XII you can do the math on what schools are getting.
If the powers who run college football stay with the four-team model, UCF is still looking at a significant payday as a member of the Big XII. But media industry leaders believe a 12-team playoff could be worth three to four times the current value. Under that plan, it's possible major conferences would be looking at $200-250M in playoff revenue yearly. Again, I don't know if we are any closer to a 12-team playoff and there are signs some commissioners want to slow down the process. But there is no way commissioners pass on that kind of money if it's on the table.
Suddenly playoff payouts per school in a P5 league could jump towards $15-20M per school.
There's NCAA Basketball Tournament money that comes into play and the Big XII just won the national title with Baylor and the league include power Kansas and other programs that routinely advance to the tournament.
All of these conference moves will make the process of who gets what money and when a mess. It's likely new members of the Big XII won't see equal payouts for a few seasons, especially if they are moving into a league with an old media deal.
But if you go back to the projection of at least $15M in TV money and add the playoff money if the model moves to 12 teams and you are looking at what could be $25M to $30M or more per year.
The AAC appears to be losing three major programs and whatever their plan is moving forward, the league is looking at a significant decrease in its media deal. It's possible when the dust settles AAC teams may see an average of $7M per team drop to $2-3M per year.
UCF will still be looking at a big number to pay the AAC for a buyout. The league rules call for a 27-month notice and $10M buyout. But everything is up for negotiation. UCONN agreed to a $17M buyout with the AAC for an earlier exit when they chose to move back to the Big East.
UCF's success on the football field since 2017 may be the example of how to play your way to a rich payday. When all the numbers are finally figured out the value of UCF's 41 wins from 2017-2020 could be worth $300M in the years to come.