Marc Daniels: What Is Trevor Lawrence Worth On A True Open Market?

College Football Playoff National Championship - Clemson v LSU

LeBron James recently signed a two-year $85 million extension with the Lakers. When the extension is done in 2023, James will have made about $435 million in career earnings as a player. But at no point during James 17 years in the NBA has he ever been the highest paid player in the game. Steph Curry is set to make $43 million this coming season. James will have to get by on $39.2 million this year. 

I have said for years, the NBA doesn't have true unrestricted free agency. Oh, James signed free agent contracts three times in Cleveland and twice with the Lakers. His deal with Miami was actually a sign and trade deal. But at no point has James been able to offer his talents to any NBA team for any amount of money. NBA salary rules limit what James or any free agent can make. Those terms are collectively bargained by the league and the players union. But what is James worth with no cap to what he can make? Lebron was 26 when he joined Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in Miami. He took less than the maximum he could've made so all three could fit their deals within the NBA salary cap rules.He made $14.5 million in the 2010-11 season. What would Heat owner Micky Arison have paid if there was no cap? $60 million a year? $75 million?  

James on your team increases your franchise value by whatever you are paying him and much more. In addition, he also means you are competing for a title and filling your arena every home game and playing on national television as many times as the league allows. He attracts top players who want to play with him and he pays you back with his performance every season.

So what about Trevor Lawrence? The NFL has a salary cap. The NFL has a rookie cap. In 2011, the NFL and the players association eliminated the power of rookies to get massive contracts. The two parties wanted veteran players to make the money and without any input of incoming rookies, changed the structure of the rookie contract. Last year's top pick, Joe Burrow, signed a $36.2 million deal with the Bengals, which included a $23.9 million signing bonus. There is nothing wrong with the deal Burrow got. But what would Burrow have been offered on a true open market? He was coming off the greatest statistical season for a quarterback in college football history. The hometown Bengals earned the right to draft Burrow because they were better at being bad than anyone else in the league. That's what the NFL Draft is. It is a deal between the owners and players where college players have no leverage to pick their place to play or negotiate for a fair market contract.

Trevor Lawrence is thought to be the type of player who comes along every 25 years. He can change your franchise on the field and increase the value of your team by a lot. But the reward for Lawrence, who has worked to become this desired player, is for a team that may not win a game to draft him. Why? Because the league thinks competitive balance is good and helping the worst teams get the best college players is what is good for the game. 

So the Jets may go 0-16 and for that they will get to pick Lawrence? And before you answer "that's what the draft is about"- did you know the NFL Draft is technically illegal? The NFL Draft violates the Sherman Antitrust Act. The draft is a restraint of trade and commerce and allows owners to suppress salaries and denies college players the right to negotiate with each NFL team.

If Trevor Lawrence was free to negotiate and sign with any NFL team, how much would he get? Would he get the type of money people threw around about the value of Dak Prescott? Would he get Russell Wilson money? Patrick Mahomes? Before you think that's insane, it's actually simple. If there's an NFL team who thinks it's crazy to pay Lawrence the same of the top veteran quarterbacks, then don't pay him. But what if another team thinks he is a rare talent that can become an all-time great? And what if they wanted to take the gamble and offer him top-5 money and a record signing bonus? Why should he not be able to negotiate and pick the best deal?

"But the Jets could never get him to sign?"

Why not? The Jets may indeed finish 0-16. But the Jets can sell New York. They can sell the marketing of his brand and the story of leading their team to a title. 

"But what if the Steelers, who are unbeaten, wanted to sign him?"

Then let them negotiate and sell Lawrence on why they would be the best choice despite having a hall of famer already playing the position.

When Lawrence led Clemson to the national title in his freshman season, many believed he would have been the first pick in the draft if he was allowed to enter the draft. But that is the other silly rule the NFL has about playing not being eligible for the draft until being three years removed from high school.

Lawrence has been forced to go back to college and risk injury for two seasons instead of being able to become a professional when he clearly was ready after one season in college.

The NFL and its fans love the draft. I love the draft. And the draft isn't going anywhere. 

It would take a player like Lawrence to challenge the system. He would really need to sue the union for accepting the rules of the draft. That would not be a great way to come into the league. But why should a player be forced to join a bad team with likely a poor offensive line and risk a shortened career because the team is that bad?

Someday, someone will challenge the draft. They should do it in the NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB and all drafts. They are fun for the media and fans, but what profession has anything like this? None.

Trevor Lawrence will be the first pick of the draft and will be forced to play for the Jets or Jags or someone else if he can force a trade. But put Lawrence on the free market and only then can you get his real value, something anyone should have the right to do...

Notes: Auburn is 5-4 and yet still got 42 points in the coaches poll...Many schools should learn from the BYU-Coastal Carolina game, which got scheduled last Wednesday after LIberty came down with Covid-19 issues. Both needed the game to improve their resume. I have said for years, school can and should leave a slot open on their schedule every season to fill in for the reason this game was played. Or maybe you are looking for a win for a new staff or need a quality game to help your playoff chances. Instead, we keep getting announcements of games scheduled for 2036...The Giants won at Seattle with Colt McCoy as their quarterback...The Dolphins are 8-4 and Tua still hasn't thrown a pick...I have clinched a spot in my fantasy league playoffs. I know, you don't care...When the message board guy says he has two sources who have confirmed that McKenzie Milton is transferring to "fill-in your school" just know he knows no one and is making it up...

Final thought: The most stolen food in the world is cheese.

Photo Credit: Getty Images


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