2024 Locks have arrived. Happy New Year to all, 2024, the year of money. This is the year our degenerate ways pay off. I can feel it. And it starts this weekend.
Let’s venture back a couple of weeks and talk about my results.
I had Mizzou, win. Rutgers, win. Iowa/UT under, win. Bama over Michigan, bummer of a loss. Texans +2 against the Browns, which feels like it was 4 years ago, loss. And the Ravens +5.5 against the 49ers, win. That was an end of 2023 record of 4-2. Bringing my overall record to 52-47-4 (53% ATS).
Still climbing towards 60% with time running out! Let’s hit it…
Titans +3.5 vs Jags- This is a simple formula and you’ll notice a trend. Since 1990, eliminated teams playing teams that need to win over the final two weeks of the regular season have gone 100-64-4 (61.0%) against the spread. Now, this is not a trend I’m just going to blind bet, but this one fits the mold to a tee. The Titans have always played the Jags tough and I love the mentality of Mike Vrabel entering this game, he is allergic to the idea of tanking, so we’re not going to see any tomfoolery there. The Jags just haven’t been right as of late, don’t let a blowout win over the Panthers fool you. Titans get the cover here and might even sneak out an outright win. Titans +3.5. Lock it up!
Falcons +3 @ Saints- I don’t trust the Saints as far as I can throw them and they are coming off the win of their season, this is a classic let down opportunity here against an opponent that mirrors them in terms of talent and efficiency. Last time these teams met, it was a 9 point win for the Falcons. And, Dennis Allen is awful coming off of wins – 20% against the spread after a win. Worst % ever, in the history of NFL coaching. Falcons +3, lock it up!
Bears +3 @ Packers- The Aaron Rodgers “we own you” days are over. This is a whole new Packers squad, and yes, they’re decent, but this line just ignores how good the Bears have been as of late. 4-1 in their last 5 games, coming off back to back wins. Their defense has been elite for about a month. Plus, Justin Fields playing for his future as an NFL QB, love that motivation…and this fits the eliminated team going up against a team that needs a win trend. Love Da Bears, +3, lock it up!
Seahawks -3 @ Cardinals- Like I said, never blind bet a trend. The Cardinals have a chance to play spoiler here, but I think we’re getting a bargain here on Seattle. Think about what Arizona just did and how that bends our perception of them, a road win against the reigning NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles. Went into that game 12 point dogs, came out with a straight up win. The Cardinals are darlings right now. But consider this, looking at the betting splits on Action Network – Arizona is taking way more money than Seattle right now and yet the line moved against the Cardinals. That’s always a signal that you’re on the wrong side if you are a Cardinals bettor. Seahawks smash, -3, lock it up!
Dolphins +2.5 vs Bills- This one makes me a little uneasy, I’ll admit it. But if I wasn’t a skeptical/paranoid Dolphins fan, I would love this bet. Think about it, you’re getting a really good home underdog in the division, and a Miami Dolphins team that has been outstanding at home. Add to that Josh Allen’s struggles in prime-time, Allen covers at a rate of 45% when playing at night, and the Bills as a whole have failed to cover in 7 straight prime-time games. Betting on my team makes me sick here, but it’s the right side, Phins +2.5…lock it up.