Feeling mighty confident these days, just 1 blemish on my record each of the last 3 weeks, bringing my 3 week record to a dominant 15-3. Season long, things are looking up as well, this hot streak has allowed me to climb 6 games above .500- 48-42 on the year. Let’s put some extra cheddar in those stockings, time to lock ‘em up!
Patriots (+2.5) @ Colts- I haven’t been able to make sense of this line all week long, no way the Colts should be favored in this game. We’re talking about a 7-6 team taking on the hottest team in the NFL, the Pats are unbeaten on the road, and they’ve just been playing masterful football. I guess the oddsmakers are looking at the fact that the Pats are giving up a load of explosive plays in the run game, and the Colts obviously have the most explosive runner in the NFL in Jonathan Taylor. The Colts are at home and the Pats haven’t exactly beaten the “who’s who” of the NFL during their 7-game win streak. I get all that, and I do think this game will be close. But please, we all know how this game is going to play out…you really think Carson Wentz can be trusted in a close game against the Pats D and Bill Belichick? No. This is one that goes down to the wire, but inevitably the Pats win. Pats +2.5, lock it up.
Phins (-9.5) vs Jets- This terrifies me as a Dolphin fan. So please, please, believe me when I tell you – this is NOT a homer play. The homer in me knows that this is exactly when the Dolphins wet the bed and let everyone down. I’ve lived this for years. It is taking everything in me to erase that negativity from my pick, so that I can be as objective as possible. Fact is, the Jets are banged up, and they can’t stop a good pass rush. The Dolphins have been flying around the field, wreaking havoc on QB’s, and they need every win they can get as they inch closer to .500 and a potential playoff birth. I think this is a Dolphins blow out. Feet don’t fail me now. Lock it up.
Jags (-3.5) vs Texans- How many times have we seen this story play itself out? Team stinks, quits on their coach, they get blown out a couple times, the coach gets fired, and then the team comes out the following week and plays the most inspired brand of football we’ve ever seen. Happens every year. This Jags team has some talent and most importantly, they have more than their competition. And they HATED that d-bag Urban Meyer, this is going to be a Jags team you barely recognize, I guarantee it. How’s this for a stat- Dating back to 2003, teams that have fired their coaches mid-season are 17-14 against the spread the following week. That might not seem staggering, but consider that teams whose coaches get fired in the middle of the year are usually gawd-awful, and they still cover over 50% of the time. Jags -3.5, lock it up.
Broncos -2.5 vs Bengals- 73% of the betting public is on the Bengals and I think they’re on the wrong side, I love disagreeing with the public when they back a team more @ a high clip than 70%, usually means I’m seeing things clearly. The Broncos are a tough out @ home, I love betting this team in Denver. You have to ask yourself, what do the Bengals do well? Pass. What do the Broncos do well? Defend the pass. It’s a bad matchup for Joe Burrow and the Bengals, especially when you consider Joe Burrow is still dealing with a fractured pinky, I thought he played well last week against San Fran, but he still didn’t look quite right to me. And how about this- over the last 12 games- teams that play SF are 1-11 straight up the following week. That is staggering. Give me the Broncos -2.5, lock it up.
Steelers (EVEN) vs Titans- All signs point to Pittsburgh here, we get a team on extended rest (they played last Thursday), a healthy TJ Watt, and Mike Tomlin coaching in a must win spot at home where his team isn’t favored to win. This stat will help crystalize what I am saying, not understand that this is for Tomlin as an underdog, and technically that’s not the case in this game, but I think the metric still applies since the Steelers aren’t favored either…Tomlin @ home as an underdog is 13-3 against the spread. The Titans are probably the better team overall, but I like the Steelers to win this one. Lock it up!
Falcons (+9.5) @ SF- I can’t believe I’m putting the Falcons on my locks list 2 weeks in a row, that is a sure-fire disaster but I love this number. The 49ers are good, but they’re not 9.5 point favorite good. This team still has holes and if you’re buying San Fran, you’re buying them at their peak value. Plus, Kyle Shanahan has a pretty iffy track record as a favorite, I like the Niners to win, but I love the Falcons to cover. ATL +9.5, fly birds fly – lock it up.