Chiefs vs 49ers Super Bowl LVIII Stone-Cold Locks

We are down to 1. The Super Bowl is here and the Locks are in. This is the final Locks list of the year and it has been a turbulent one to say the least. A red hot start in September and October, things tapered off a little bit around the holidays, and it just went south from there. But, I recovered with a good week last week. Current record going into my final round of Locks: 60-59-4. Just over 50%.

Let’s get after it!

Chiefs vs 49ers Super Bowl LVII Stone-Cold Locks:

Chiefs +2- If you’ve been listening to the show at all this week, you already know this is a formality. I hate that everyone seems to share the same opinion, but I’m not going to let that psyche me out. I told myself last year after the Super Bowl, I told myself several times this year, I will not bet against Patrick Mahomes in a big game situation. I’m especially not going to bet against him when he’s an underdog. Mahomes is 9-3 straight up as an underdog and 10-1-1 against the spread. Mahomes is 14-3 in playoff games period. And his 3 losses are to Brady, Brady, and Burrow. I don’t think Purdy’s getting added to that list. Plus, the defense really puts the icing on the cake for me. The Chiefs defense has been lights out, and especially late in games, they’ve surrendered a total of 3 points in the 4th quarter against the Dolphins, Bills, and Ravens. Its KC or nothing for me, and there’s no way I’m sitting on the sidelines on Super Bowl Sunday, so give me the Chiefs +2. Lock it up!

Mahomes under .5 INT- Played this in the AFC title game and it hit. I’m going back to the well with this one. Mahomes hasn’t thrown a pick since Christmas and he’s playing some of his best football right now. I don’t see him putting the ball in harms way too much. A lot of safe passes to Kelce, screens to Rashee Rice, and I think they’re going to run a ton in this game. Mahomes, no INT’s, lock it up!

Isaiah Pacheco over 67.5 rush yards- One of the things I love about what the Chiefs have done recently, is they’ve really trimmed the fat on their offense. They realized they can’t trust or depend on Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, or any other running back not named Isaiah Pacheco. This dude is a bull in a China shop, he’s muscle hamster, he’s gonna run all over San Fran. Last 2 games, the Niners have given up 182 and 136 yards on the ground. Both games allowing a single RB to go for at least 93 yards. This is the weakness of this SF defense, Reid will exploit it. Pacheco over 67.5 rush yards, lock it up!

Under 47.5 points- I was thinking about targeting one of the halves but there has been an interesting trend in this postseason. The 49ers have gotten off to really slow starts, scoring just 7 points in each of the first 2 games they’ve played leading up to the Super Bowl. The Chiefs on the other hand are shutting teams down late. So I can’t quite put my finger on the game script or which half will be lower scoring, but I think defense reigns supreme in this game. Also, its been 8 years since we’ve seen a total this low, and the under hit that year too. And unders are 4-1 in the past 5 Super Bowls. UNDER 47.5, lock it up!

Travis Kelce to catch a pass on the Chiefs 1st drive (YES @ -165)- This one isn’t tough to figure out. If the opening drives in these games are scripted, which they are, then why would Andy Reid not script a play for the best TE in the game? The answer, he wouldn’t. In fact, if you just look @ the 3 games the Chiefs have already played this postseason, Kelce has caught at least one pass on the first Chiefs possession of each. Free money. Lock it up!

Christian McCaffrey 50+ receiving yards (+190)- This is meant to balance out my cheap pick with Kelce. This is something McCaffrey has only done 4x this season, including the playoffs, and he hasn’t done it yet in the postseason. However, I expect him to be utilized in a very big way in this game, and while he’s become a more potent between the tackles runner, don’t forget what this guy can do as a receiver. One of the best receiving back of all time, in the biggest game of his life, I think he smashes this number. CMC at least 50 or more receiving yards, lock it up!