We have arrived into postseason football. The pressure’s on now with these Stone Cold Locks. I have not had the year I would like. Currently sitting at 54-51-4 on the year. That’s 51% against the spread. Not profitable. But, we still have a bunch of NFL games to comb through, big ones, and I mopped up in the playoffs last year, so hopefully that same juju can carry over to 2024. Let’s hit it!
As always, these #’s lock for me at noon on Friday 1/12 on the Hard Rock Sportsbook app. Numbers may change if you get to this later on.
Browns -2 @ Texans- I’m backing the better defense, the more experienced coach, the most experienced QB here. Cleveland is just further along than the Texans, who are way ahead of schedule right now. Love CJ Stroud, but he’s still a rookie. Since 1990, rookie QB’s are just 11-18 straight up in the playoffs. Its tough, it’s a completely different season. Cleveland’s defense makes enough plays to get this team the win and cover. Browns -2, lock it up!
Dolphins/Chiefs UNDER 43.5- This game is going to be unlike anything we’ve seen in a long time, this is Ice Bowl status in terms of the weather. Its going to throw everything off sync with these teams. And off sync is already how I would describe the Chiefs, their offense has not looked right for most of the year, and their defense has been carrying them. I don’t expect Miami to win this game, which also means, I don’t expect much from the offense. The wind could impact the kicking as well. I looked back, the last 4 games to have a wind chill lower than -20 finished with a total of 38, 34, 19, and 43. None going over the total of 43.5. Slam the under, lock it up!
Steelers +9.5 @ Bills- Everything in my body told me to take the Bills here, but it’s a bet off reputation and not reality. The reality is, Mason Rudolph has actually been decent. He played well in a rain soaked game last week, and this game is supposed to be another mess of a weather game. Cold and wind and all that stuff that can really ugly up a game. I know TJ Watt isn’t playing and I don’t love that, but this Bills team just isn’t blowing teams out anymore. I saw them struggle against the Pats a few weeks ago. Josh Allen has lost 7 straight against the spread as a double digit favorite. I would buy this up to 10 personally, but for the sake of the segment, I’ll take the Steelers +9.5, lock it up.
Packers +7 @ Cowboys- Something in my gut says the Cowboys are on upset alert. Let us not forget who we’re talking about here. Dak Prescott is 2-4 in playoff games, this isn’t Tom Brady folks. And I know the Cowboys defense is ferocious at times, but Jordan Love happens to be at his best when he’s facing a blitz, and the Cowboys are one of the most blitz happy teams in the NFL. When the Packers beat the Chiefs earlier this season, Jordan Love was 10 of 13 with 3 passing touchdowns when they sent extra pass rushers. Good matchup for GB, I expect them to keep it close, and I think they can win this game. Pack +7, lock it up!
Rams +3 @ Lions- I don’t usually advise betting against a logo, but this is a special circumstance. The Lions haven’t won a playoff game since 1992. That’s 9 straight postseason losses, this organization only knows losing this time of year. But, outside of that silliness, I really like the Rams here. I love the way they’ve been playing, winners of 7 of their last 8 coming into the postseason. They are the prototypical, hot at the right time team. And their offense is a nightmare matchup for the Lions pass defense, which ranks 4th worst in the NFL. Good luck with Puka and Kupp. Matt Stafford will play an inspired brand of ball in his old stomping grounds, Rams cover, lock it up!
Eagles -3 @ Bucs- I know there’s all this turmoil with the Eagles right now. AJ Brown’s deleting all things Philly from his Instagram, they’re having players only meetings, and now there’s talk of Nick Sirianni getting fired. Don’t care. Philly is just simply more talented, and at the end of the day, I trust Jalen Hurts with the ball in his hands in a pressure situation way more than I trust Baker Mayfield. I’ll take the better team and hope for the best here, Philly -3, lock it up!
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