Feeling good, feeling great. Got my losing week out of the way and now its calm seas and clear skies ahead…at least I hope. 2-3-1 last week, lost my way a little bit. I went back to the drawing board, had a come to Jesus meeting with myself, and I’m ready to lock and load…still swimming above .500 for the year. 11-9-2 ATS. Let’s hand out some winners, here we go!
So much for not liking any games. I have 7. I’ll keep this short and sweet for each.
Colorado +21 vs USC- I think Deion and company needed a wake up call and they got one last week @ Oregon. This is a much different sort of opponent though and I think its one that will struggle to dominate in the way Oregon did. For one, this game is in Boulder, so that helps. Also, this is a 9am start for USC players body clock wise. And, USC’s defense is terrible. They rank in the 70’s overall, whereas Oregon was top 10. Colorado keeps it close, +21, lock it up!
Kentucky -1 vs Florida Gators- One of my general rules is to take SEC teams at home, especially when I think they’re the better unit. Devin Leary is the QB Florida wanted originally in the portal, but they settled for Graham Mertz. I just think this Gators team is a whole different animal @ the Swamp, take them out of that environment, and they can’t be trusted. The Gators rank 116th in 3rd down conversion rate, that is bad news on the road in the SEC. And the Gator defense allows too many explosive plays, they rank 133rd in that area of 133 qualifying teams. Back the Cats, lock it up.
Jags -3 vs Falcons- This is a rage bet. Here’s how I came to the conclusion that the Jags are a good bet…for 1, its London, and they are used to this environment. But more than anything, it was because of the Packers last night. Hear me out, I watched the Falcons go toe to toe with Green Bay, you could not have had 2 more evenly matched teams, and after what I saw last night, I realize that GB kinda stinks. Atlanta is 2-1, but its because they beat the Panthers, not impressed. And they beat GB by 1. When they faced real competition (Detroit) they lost by 14. This is a bounce back spot for the Jags, -3, lock it up!
Texans +3 vs Steelers- Who the hell is Kenny Pickett to be a road favorite in the NFL? Seriously? This offense is horrendous, their only shot to compete in this game is if their defense shuts down the Texans offense…and I don’t know if you’ve been paying attention, but that offense is pretty good. Allow me to read the list of rookie QB’s who have 900+ passing yards and 0 INT’s in their first 3 career games…ready…CJ Stroud. That’s the list. Texans +3. Lock it up!
Ravens +3 @ Browns- The Cleveland defense looks legit, I’ll give them that, but I think they might be getting a little too gassed up by NFL fans. They’ve wrecked the Titans terrible o-line and the Bengals with an injured Joe Burrow. The Ravens appear to be getting healthier, so this is going to be a real test, and I don’t trust Deshaun Watson. 2 trend reasons I love Baltimore- 1) Lamar is undefeated as an underdog ATS. 2) Since 2009, AFC North underdogs in divisional games, when the spread is less than 4…63% against the spread. Lock it up! (update: Deshaun Watson is questionable and this line has moved a 1.5 because of it)
Dolphins +2.5 @ Bills- This my friends is called a “sharp trap” at least that’s what I’m going to tell myself. Here’s my line of thinking…every sharp analyst I’ve heard or read this week is on Buffalo. Every “professional bettor” in the country is going to be on Buffalo. Because these guys can’t adjust their models…they live by this stuff, and the model says the Bills are still better. Well, I have a model too…and its called my eye balls. Phins +2.5, lock it up! (worth noting, Buffalo will be without their best safety, Jordan Poyer for this one)
49ers -14 vs Arizona- Sorry AZ, last week was cute, but its time to go back to the kids table. SF is the best team in the NFL right now, they’ve got an extra 3 days to prepare, and the Cardinals are coming off the upset of the season so far. This sets up to be such a smash spot for the Niners. The 49ers have covered 8 consecutive home games, Brock Purdy is 8-3 ATS in his career, and best # of all – since adding CMC, the 49ers are 12-4 against the spread. Niners smash, lock it up!
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